一般来讲，我们手里要先有货才能卖货，即有货(比如通过生产或采购等形式获得货物)在前，卖货在后。
因此，正常的商品流向应该是近期买入、远期卖出。公众号关注：博森科技小蝶。
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在期货交易中，做多就是买入期货；做空就是卖出期货。那在期权交易中呢，也是这样吗？ 当然不是。很多新手往往会按这个逻辑去交·易期权，但当要买卖的时候却发现根本行不通。因为期权有两种类型：看涨期权和看跌期权。 看涨期权是指期权买方有权在特定时间以特定价·格买入某种标的的权利；公众号关注：博森科技小蝶。看跌期权是指期权买方有权在特定时间以特定价·格卖出某种标的的权利。 因此，在期权市场中，要买期权时有两种选择，要么买入看涨期权，要么买入看跌期权。 虽然都是买入，但却是一个做多，一个做空。买入看涨期权，是对标的做多；买入看跌期权，是对标的做空。 举个例子：买入豆粕看涨期权，相当于做多豆粕期货。买入豆粕看跌期权，相当于做空豆粕期货。所以，在期权市场中，对标的做空是买而不是卖。 同理，卖期权时，也有两种选择：卖出看涨期权或卖出看跌期权。不过，问题又来了，卖期权是做空还是做多呢？交流请加笔者！
节后，以太坊的涨势变得较为强势。而且最近以太坊生态中无论是二层扩展还是游戏等板块也开始有了蠢蠢欲动的迹象，这些都应该是短期利好的消息。 而与此同时，比特币的走势却显得稍微有些弱。公众号关注：博森科技小蝶。 网上渐渐地又开始讨论比特币短线的“顶”是否到了，以太坊短线的“顶”可能在哪里。 在此，我觉得有必要提醒大家一个值得注意的事项： 那就是不要做什么波段，不要管什么短线的顶，我们要彻底忽略这些干扰我们的信息，现阶段坚定地拿住手中的比特币和以太坊。我们积攒的筹码根本就不是为了眼前这点鸡零狗碎的小利，而是为了接下来在牛市中收获丰厚的果实。 很多时候，我觉得对我们普通投资者而言，避坑远比盈利要重要，因为不盈利我们最多失掉一次机会，但我们还能把握未来；但踩进坑里，我们很有可能就万劫不复，连把握机会的本都没有了。 节前狂飙的Pandora代币就是一例典型。 代币的单价已经接近10个以太坊了，但接下来的几天，代币的价格就出现了大幅下滑。现在，它的价格只有不到5个以太坊。 我记得在它最后狂飙突进的那几天，网上有不少认为它的价格还能再上涨100倍。 对此我不敢作这样的预测。 根据我个人的经历，在一个代币刚诞生时，就被非常多人看好。这样的代币十有八九未来并没有大家想象的那么好，或者即便有，其场景也是大家不可能想象得到得。 其实还有一段话，同样根据我个人的经历，在一个代币刚诞生时，就被不少人认为未来还能再涨百倍，这样的代币十有八九未来是很难再涨那么多的。 比特币、以太坊、ORDI等等无一不是如此：它们在刚诞生时绝大多数人根本不相信更不敢公开说它们未来还能再涨百倍。 回到Pandora的例子，对散户投资者而言，如果在节前它狂飙突进的高潮期头脑发热地冲进去了，接下来直接面对的就是损失。公众号关注：博森科技小蝶。
当我们对项目有一个比较合理的预期后，接下来就要在跟踪项目的过程中观察项目的进展了。我们观察项目的进展关键就是看项目的发展是不是按照我们的预期前进。 这时，一个很容易出现的问题就是项目的进展“不符合”我们的预期。 这里的“不符合”可能表现出下面几种状况：公众号关注：博森科技小蝶。 团队的努力和进度达不到我们的预期； 团队很努力，但项目的策略或者思路和我们想象的不同； 团队努力，项目的策略或者思路也和我们想象的一样，但在市场中取得的反响达不到我们的预期。 对第一种“不符合”，我会毫不犹豫的抛弃这个项目。 比如早期清空COSMOS的ATOM，前阵子清空PEPE就属于这个状况：它们的初创核心团队都发生了严重的问题，我立刻就离开了它们。公众号关注：博森逍遥区块链。 对第二种“不符合”，怎么处理就因人而异了。 对单纯看中投资收益的投资者而言，我建议可以继续观察，看市场的反馈再决定怎么处理。这种“不符合”有可能是投资者的想法不对，也有可能是项目方的做法不对，所以不妨静观其变，留给市场来检验。 但对还有其它考虑的投资者而言，我建议可以按照自己的想法操作。 比如我在投资项目时，有时候不单纯是看投资收益，还很希望投出一个按自己的思路发展会成功的项目。 这样投出来的项目一旦成功，除了能带来获利，更能带来独特的成就感。所以有时候我也会离开这样的项目。公众号关注：博森逍遥区块链。
以目前的市值排名看，ORDI和SATS算是BRC-20中当仁不让的龙头和龙二了。 对很多生态来说，我们主要对龙头代币进行一下评估就可以了，因为很多生态中的龙二和龙三基本都是抄袭龙头，所以龙二、龙三长线看很难超过龙头。 但对BRC-20生态来说，这个状况似乎有点特殊：因为在BRC-20生态中，龙头（我们暂时把ORDI算为龙头）和龙二（我们暂时把SATS视为龙二）在价值取向和特点上还是有较大区别的。公众号关注：博森科技小蝶。 前者是新技术的第一个落地实践，在很长时间内并没有太多的应用，只是去年才开始因为铭文技术的出现在应用方面有了突破。而后者则完全是以应用为导向，自打出生起其价值就完全靠应用场景来支撑。 ORDI基本上类似比特币，也是一个新技术的第一个落地实践，也是在应用场景上暂时没有找到赋能。 但SATS却似乎不太像以太坊，因为它的诞生最初似乎不是为了应用，恐怕纯粹就是个MEME，甚至可能是部署者突发奇想开的一个玩笑，但后来被Unisat团队创造性地进行了赋能，从而有了应用场景的支撑。 SATS这段戏剧性的经历使它既有了MEME的特点，同时又有了应用场景的赋能。 正是这种双重属性，使得SATS爆发出惊人的后劲，市值迎头赶上并且咬住了ORDI。 我认为这个状况大概率还会持续到牛市。公众号关注：博森逍遥区块链。 因此如果纯粹从潜力上来说，我觉得SATS的潜力和ORDI非常类似，几乎难分伯仲。在牛市峰值的时候，大概率ORDI的市值能达到多少，SATS的市值也能达到多少。 然而我觉得对大多数SATS的持有者来说，大家除了关心SATS的市值以外，恐怕更好奇另一个问题： SATS的市值能不能超过ORDI？ 之所以大家会有这个问题，主要是因为SATS曾经一度在市值上超过了ORDI，尽管后来又跌了下来，但这个奇迹实在是让人振奋，给了持有者极大的想象空间。 在现在的比特币生态中，我们已经看到了实现反超的现成案例：SRC-20生态中反超为王的STAMP就是一个典型。 在SRC-20生态中，第一个代币是KEVIN，第二个代币是STAMP。 但由于STAMP在字面上更能表达比特币邮票（STAMPS）这个协议的内涵，因此它展现出了更强的MEME属性，从而在市值上反超了KEVIN，一跃成为龙头并持续至今。 那SATS有没可能重现STAMP的奇迹呢？ 那就要看能给SATS赋能的要素能不能超过ORDI了。 在MEME属性上，SATS和ORDI都有足够的“意义”和“内涵”。SATS表示比特币的最小单位，ORDI表示铭文协议的缩写，这方面两者难分高下。 但在天时上，ORDI占了优势，它是第一个代币。因此，总的来说SATS在MEME属性上恐怕还是很难超过ORDI。 而在赋能方面，SATS不像以太坊那样有一个偶像特质极强的精神领袖带领，有长远的发展规划、有缜密的发展逻辑。 SATS的发展和赋能显得更为松散、更加随意。所以在赋能的持续性上存在一定的不确定性。 而这个不确定性就可能导致它无法持续被应用赋能，也就无法凭应用持续积累共识。 另外，还有一个更值得我们关注的指标：在萎靡的市况中哪个更抗跌。公众号关注：博森逍遥区块链。
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JalaLive
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